2016年的政治动荡——英国退欧和唐纳德.特朗普(Donald Trump)当选美国总统——是民主的胜利还是对民主的威胁？民主政体必须对合法的抱怨做出回应。
Are the political upheavals of 2016 — Brexit and America’s election of Donald Trump — a triumph of democracy or a threat to it? Democracies must respond to legitimate grievances.
实际上，有能力和平回应是它们的长处之一。
Indeed, their ability to do so peacefully is among their strengths.
但煽动家利用此类抱怨的做法威胁到了民主。
But the demagogue’s exploitation of such grievances threatens democracy.
其他地方已经出现了这种情况。
This has happened elsewhere.
认为西方民主政体不会受影响将是愚蠢的。
It would be foolish to assume western democracies are immune.
2016年，担忧和愤怒主导了英国和美国这两个最重要、稳定、悠久的民主政体的政治情绪。
In 2016, fear and anger became dominant political emotions in the UK and the US — two of the most important, stable and enduring democracies.
担忧是围绕向下流动(downward mobility)和文化变迁，而愤怒是针对移民和冷漠的精英。
The fear was over downward mobility and cultural changes; the anger was against immigrants and indifferent elites.
它们汇聚为卷土重来的民族主义和仇外主义。
They came together in resurgent nationalism and xenophobia.
一些英国退欧派人士和共和党人相信绝对自由市场理念，
Some Brexiters and Republicans believe in the ideal of absolutely free markets.
但这种理念不会让英国退欧或者让特朗普当选总统。
But that idea did not bring Brexit to the UK or Mr Trump to Washington.
担忧和愤怒要深刻得多，也更不吸引人。
The emotions were far more visceral and less attractive.
对民主主义者而言，此类原始情绪的爆发之所以令人担忧是因为它们很难遏制。
For democrats, the outburst of such primal emotions is disturbing because they are so hard to contain.
民主政体本质上是一种文明的内战。
Democracy is at bottom a civilised form of civil war.
它是一种受谅解和制度制约的权力争斗。
It is a struggle for power contained by understandings and institutions.
谅解是赢家永远不会拿走一切。
The understandings are that winners never take all.
反对派是合法的，可以自由表达观点而且权力受到限制。
Opposition is legitimate, opinion free and power curbed.
公民价值观是民主政体最重要的资产。
The values of the citizenry are a democracy’s most important asset.
他们必须发自内心地明白，通过操纵选举、打击异见或者骚扰反对派让临时权力永久化是不合法的。
They must understand in their bones that it is illegitimate to make temporary power permanent by rigging elections, suppressing contrary opinions or harassing the opposition.
不存在什么人民，这是想象出来的实体。
There exists no such thing as the people; this is an imaginary entity.
只有公民，而他们的选择不仅可能、而且必然会改变。
There are merely citizens whose choices not only may, but surely will, change.
尽管必须找到方法整合公民的观点，但始终会有缺陷。
While a way must be found to aggregate those views, it will always be defective.
最终，民主政体或者民主共和国为不同观点乃至不同文化的人们提供了较为和谐地比邻而居的方式。
Ultimately, democracy, or a democratic republic, provides a way for people with different views and even cultures to live side by side in reasonable harmony.
然而，制度也同样重要，因为它们设定了游戏规则。
Yet institutions matter, too, because they set the rules of the game.
制度也可能失效。
Institutions may also fail.
美国选举人团制度已经在两方面失效。
The US electoral college has failed doubly.
它促使特朗普当选不仅与选举中的投票数不符，而且也没有反映出亚历山大.汉密尔顿(Alexander Hamilton)想要的那种对候选人德行的判断。
Its selection of Mr Trump neither accords with the votes cast in the election nor reflects judgment of the candidate’s merits, as desired by Alexander Hamilton.
这位开国之父指出，选举人团既会防范外国势力想在我们议会中获得不当影响力之心，又会确保总统之位永远不会落到并非具备必要素质的杰出者那种人手里。
This founding father argued that the college would both guard against the desire in foreign powers to gain an improper ascendant in our councils and ensure the office of President will never fall to the lot of any man who is not in an eminent degree endowed with the requisite qualifications.
对俄罗斯黑客行为的指控以及特朗普在经验、判断和性格上的明显缺陷表明，选举人团制度没能佐证汉密尔顿希望的那种保障作用。
The charges of Russian hacking and Mr Trump’s evident defects of experience, judgment and character show that the college has not proved the bulwark Mr Hamilton hoped for.
现在基本上只能依靠其他制度（尤其是国会、法庭和媒体）以及公民。
It is up to other institutions — notably, Congress, courts and media — and the citizens at large now to do so.
煽动家越是热情洋溢和野心勃勃，民主体制就越有可能沦为专制统治。
The more powerful the passions and the more uncontained the ambitions, the more likely the democratic system will collapse into despotism.
煽动家是民主的软肋。
Demagogues are the Achilles heel of democracy.
现在甚至还出现了标准的煽动剧本。
There is even is a standard demagogic playbook.
无论是左翼还是右翼，他们都标榜自己是反精英的大众代表和不合适的局外人，并作为魅力领导人与追随者密切联系，他们往往通过弥天大谎来操纵这种联系，用以谋求自己的进步；他们威胁既有的行为准则和约束性制度，把这些准则和制度描述为他们所代表的民意的敌人。
Whether of left or right, they present themselves as representatives of the common people against elites and unworthy outsiders; make a visceral connection with followers as charismatic leaders; manipulate that connection for their own advancement, frequently by lying egregiously; and threaten established rules of conduct and constraining institutions as enemies of the popular will that they embody.
特朗普几乎是教科书式的煽动家。
Mr Trump is almost a textbook demagogue.
英国独立党(UKIP)前领袖杰尔.法拉奇(Nigel Farage)略逊一畴，就是因为事实证明攻破英国基于党派的制度比美国总统选举更难。
Nigel Farage, former leader of the UK Independence party, has not advanced so far because it has proved harder to capture the UK’s party-based institutions than it is the US presidency.
然而，英国退欧运动和特朗普崛起中的煽动因素存在相似之处。
Yet there are similarities between the demagogic elements of the Brexit campaign and the rise of Mr Trump.
对两者而言，反对派是敌人而非观点不同的同胞。
For both, opponents are enemies rather than fellow citizens who think differently.
两者都宣称代表反对外国人和卖国贼的人民。
Both claim to represent the people against foreigners and traitors.
煽动家的运动自然导致了专制统治——多数人的暴政掩盖了一个人的暴政。
The demagogue’s campaign leads naturally to despotism — the tyranny of the majority that is a mask on the tyranny of one.
由于制度是在专制统治下制定的，那么反对派就会被迫反叛或者顺从。
As institutions are brought under dictatorial control, the opposition is driven into rebellion or acquiescence.
独裁者利用前者作为镇压的借口，利用后者要求绝对服从。
Despots use the former as an excuse for repression and the latter to demand absolute obedience.
无论是过去还是现在，都有一系列通过煽动攥取权力的例子。
A host of examples of the demagogic route to power exists, in both past and present.
贝尼托.墨索里尼(Benito Mussolini)和阿道夫.希特勒(Adolf Hitler)就是煽动家变身独裁者的经典例子。
Benito Mussolini and Adolf Hitler are case studies of demagogues turned into despots.
最近的例子也比比皆是，从乌戈.查韦斯(Hugo Chávez)到欧尔班.维克托(Viktor Orban)和弗拉基米尔.普京(Vladimir Putin)。
It is not hard to think of recent examples, from Hugo Chávez to Viktor Orban and Vladimir Putin.