随着日本在人口结构上向“死亡高峰期”攀升，这个世界第三大经济体2万亿日元的殡葬业正在经历一场大规模的文化转变。
Japan’s Y2tn funeral business is undergoing a wholesale cultural transformation as the world’s third-biggest economy enters its mournful demographic ascent to “peak death”.
这一转变发生之际，精算表格显示，日本殡葬业将进入20年的业务繁荣期。
The shift comes as Japan enters what actuarial tables show will be a two-decade boom of activity for the industry.
持续的低出生率，意味着日本每年130万的死亡人数已经比出生人数多出30万。日本迅速老化的人口结构，令日本殡仪馆接收遗体数按照现有趋势将于2040年达到167万的峰值。
A persistently low birth rate means Japan’s annual 1.3m deaths already outnumber births by 300,000. The country’s rapidly ageing population puts occupancies at the nation’s mortuaries on course to peak at 1.67m in 2040.
不过，尽管营收正在攀升，但自上世纪90年代以来，平均送葬人数却已减半。对于平均230万日元（合2.1万美元）的殡葬成本，丧亲者也不再像过去那样热心；随着家庭对殡葬仪式本身提出质疑，殡葬习俗也在受到侵蚀。多名业内主管表示，即使是在死亡率攀升的情况下，取得可持续盈利增长的难度可能也会变大。
But while revenues are rising, average mourner numbers have halved since the 1990s. The bereaved have become less enthusiastic about the average Y2.3m ($21,000) cost of a funeral and conventions are being eroded as families question the ceremonies themselves. Securing sustainable profit growth even amid a rising mortality rate could become more difficult, say industry heads.
去年12月在东京举办的一场史无前例的殡葬业交易会，以及最近亚马逊日本(Amazon Japan)和一个佛教团体围绕一项在线和尚预订服务的争端，都强烈暗示殡葬业的现状：在日本人反思该如何纪念至亲的离世之际，殡葬业正在匆忙调整。
An unprecedented funeral trade fair in Tokyo in December, and a recent spat between Amazon Japan and a Buddhist group over an online monks-for-hire service hint strongly at an industry scrambling to adapt as Japanese people reassess how to mark the passing of loved ones.
针对日本殡葬业的调查少之又少。不过，普遍的看法是，有逾35%的日本老年人只希望家人和密友参加葬礼，至少8%的老年人根本就不想要葬礼。
Surveys on Japan’s death industry are rare but conventional wisdom is that more than 35 per cent of elderly Japanese want only family and close friends at their funerals and at least 8 per cent want no funeral at all.
不过，压低葬礼出席率的原因，是“礼节性出席者”的消失。日本最大殡葬管理集团璨 Holdings(San Holdings)的副社长野吕裕一(Yuichi Noro)表示，过去，为显示忠诚，员工集体出席老板的近亲、或重要客户企业的社长及其亲属的葬礼，是十分常见的事情。
Driving down the attendance rates, though, has been the disappearance of the “duty attendee”. In the past it was quite normal for loyalty-bound employees to troop to the funerals of their bosses’ close relatives or the presidents and family of important customer companies, says Yuichi Noro, president of the country’s largest funeral management group San Holdings.
在过去，企业员工在葬礼多的年头一年参加两三个素未谋面的人的葬礼很常见。然而，职场文化已经改变。越来越多的劳工持有的是短期或兼职合同，受旧习俗的束缚没有那么大。
In a busy year, it was once quite usual for company workers to attend two or three funerals of people they had never met. But work culture has changed. A rising proportion of the workforce is on short-term or part-time contracts and less bound by old conventions.
野吕的公司目前已成为日本殡葬业最激进的整合者。他说：“企业不再像过去那样感觉像个家庭，员工的忠诚感降低了。没有了礼节性出席者，葬礼的氛围已完全改变。”
“Companies do not feel like families in the way they used to and feelings of loyalty are lower,” said Mr Noro, whose company has become the most aggressive consolidator of the Japanese funeral industry. “Without the duty attendees the atmosphere of funerals has completely changed.”
他补充说，人口结构的变化也迫使日本悼念亡人的方式出现了根本转变。80岁出头的平均寿命，意味着多数人在逝世时已退休近20年，他们的葬礼上不再满是以前的同事。
Demographics are also forcing a fundamental shift in the way Japan approaches mourning, he added. Life expectancies in the low 80s mean that by the time they die, most Japanese have been retired for nearly two decades and their funerals are no longer padded with ex-colleagues.